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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."